A steadier pace and more structured negotiations are reshaping strategy for buyers and sellers.

This Fredericton real estate market update reflects the most recent three month data and what it means heading into spring. The market remains active. But it is behaving differently than it did in 2021 and 2022. Choice has improved. The pace has moderated. Negotiations look measured rather than rushed.

This is not a correction narrative. It is a normalization narrative. And normalization rewards strategy.

If you are planning a move this year, review our guide to buying and selling in Fredericton before making timing decisions.

By the Numbers

The following figures reflect the most recent three month average, November 2025 through January 2026, for Fredericton North and Fredericton South residential properties.

Market Activity

• Average sale price: $381,099
• Sales volume: 67 sales per month
• Days to sell: 47 days
• Close price to list price ratio: 99.0 percent

Supply and Financing

• listings: 845 properties
• Months of inventory: 14 months
• Five year conventional mortgage rate in Canada: approximately 5.06 percent

At first glance, 14 months of inventory appears elevated. However, January seasonally inflates this metric because sales typically slow at the start of the year. Directional shifts matter more than headline numbers.

What Is Happening Now

Supply is no longer at peak compression.

In spring 2022, months of inventory fell as low as four to five months. That was an exceptionally tight market. Today, supply relative to demand is meaningfully higher than it was at the peak.

Pace has moderated.

At the tightest point in 2022, days to sell fell to 22 days in June and 26 days in July. The current three month average of 47 days reflects a more typical marketing timeline. Homes still sell. Buyers simply have more time to evaluate and structure offers.

Negotiation patterns have normalized.

During the surge cycle, bidding regularly pushed final sale prices well above asking. In 2022, the close price to list price ratio reached 108.6 percent in March and 114.3 percent in May. In the most recent three month window, that ratio sits around 99 percent.

Fewer extreme bidding situations do not imply weaker results. They imply a more structured process.

What Was Different in 2021 and 2022

The prior cycle was shaped by rare conditions. Mortgage rates averaged in the low three percent range in 2021. That expanded purchasing power quickly. Inventory simultaneously tightened, limiting options. When borrowing costs are low and supply is constrained, urgency dominates decision making. That dynamic created rapid price growth, compressed marketing times, and elevated sale to list ratios.

It was real. It was measurable. And it was unusual.

It should not be treated as the standard baseline.

Is Fredericton in a Buyer or Seller Market in 2026?

To answer that clearly, seasonal distortion must be removed. Using a spring comparison provides better context. The average months of inventory from March through June currently sits near 5.25 months.

Historically in Fredericton:

• Under 4 months signals strong seller leverage
• 4 to 7 months signals balance
• Over 7 months signals buyer leverage

At approximately 5.25 months, the market is balanced leaning. It is neither overheated nor distressed.

That shift is what many people are feeling.

What This Means for Buyers

Use time to reduce risk.

A 47 day average marketing period allows buyers to confirm comparable sales, conduct inspections, and evaluate long term fit. Competing remains necessary on well positioned homes, but panic driven decisions are less common.

Anchor offers to evidence.

With close price to list ratios hovering near 99 percent, pricing is more sensitive to condition, location, and realistic expectations. Data matters more than momentum.

What This Means for Sellers

Precision in pricing is critical.

When buyers can compare more properties, condition and positioning become differentiators. Professional marketing, realistic staging, and clear communication reduce friction in negotiations.

For a more detailed breakdown of pricing strategy, see how we approach valuation in Downtown Fredericton and surrounding neighbourhoods.

Presentation has leverage.

When buyers can compare more properties, condition and positioning become differentiators. Professional marketing, realistic staging, and clear communication reduce friction in negotiations.

Expect steadier transactions.

Fewer extreme bidding situations do not imply weaker outcomes. Sellers who align pricing and preparation with market conditions are still achieving strong results.

What to Watch Next

If mortgage rates ease meaningfully, buyer confidence may strengthen, compressing days to sell and tightening negotiation spreads.

If inventory continues rising through spring without a matching increase in sales, negotiation flexibility may expand further.

If sales activity strengthens while new listings remain steady, certain segments, particularly entry level homes, could tighten again.

These are signals, not forecasts.

The goal is not to predict headlines. It is to interpret the data clearly and build a strategy that improves price, terms, timing, and peace of mind.

The Strategic Takeaway

The market has normalized.
Sellers must price precisely.
Buyers can negotiate with evidence rather than urgency.

If you are considering buying or selling in Fredericton, Oromocto, or surrounding communities, request a custom home value assessment or a neighbourhood specific market snapshot to map your next move with clarity. You can also explore our recent analysis on downsizing in Fredericton if a lifestyle shift is part of your decision.

Sources

New Brunswick Real Estate Board Matrix statistics exports. Region: Fredericton. Districts: Fredericton North and Fredericton South. Property Type: Residential. Timeframe: January 2021 to January 2026.

Statistics Canada Table 34-10-0145-01. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation conventional mortgage lending rate, five year term, monthly, Canada.